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The $500 Experiment
i've been wanting to do this for awhile but kept getting distracted. so i'm gonna hang with it and post it here in public view as long as i can, starting either this week or next.
post what? i'm convinced that if you do like the cats and others have said and just take some profit when you can then you can roll just $500 into more than $1,000,000 in less than a year. these will be actual trades and we'll see how i do. sometimes i'll give advance warning- but mostly i probably won't post until i'm out or on my way out. that way it's not like pumping my own plays which would invalidate the model, right? the model is i'm setting aside just $500 to start. i'll be using quant (from me) and/or technical analysis (a lot from greencat's cd) to make these plays. sometimes i'll explain fully why i made each play and sometimes not because many of greencat's methods and mine are proprietary and just shouldn't be laid out for public view. the whole point is to show how do-able this $500 thing is... okay- the next post will show my basic financial strategy. btw, ANYBODY can belly up to the bar here and post a similar thing with $500 or $1000 to start and track their results for us to see. in fact, it's a good idea, as you'll see why in next post... in a few minutes...
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___________________________________________ [SIZE=2"No more riddles."[/size] ___________________________________________ get the cd. it's how money gets made. |
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Part 2
my plan is to compound this $500 at minimum 10% per week. so you can see that at that rate my max is just $71,021 . so obviously we need someone to roll for 20% per week with $1000 and they'd crack $1mil in wk #38, etc... the thing is, i don't have a daytrading acct, which would make it a lot easier to do- instead of compounding by weeks, i'd compound per play... you can see how that would work... note that it takes 81 weeks (not shown) with $500 @ 10% compounded per week to hit $1,024,200.11 , so with a daytrading acct and 8 10% trades per week i'd hit the mark in week 11...
wk. ...10%.... 20% 0.... 500.... 500 1.... 550.... 600 2.... 605.... 720 3.... 665.5.... 864 4.... 732.05.... 1036.8 5.... 805.255.... 1244.16 6.... 885.7805.... 1492.992 7.... 974.35855.... 1791.5904 8.... 1071.794405.... 2149.90848 9.... 1178.973846.... 2579.890176 10.... 1296.87123.... 3095.868211 11.... 1426.558353.... 3715.041853 12.... 1569.214188.... 4458.050224 13.... 1726.135607.... 5349.660269 14.... 1898.749168.... 6419.592323 15.... 2088.624085.... 7703.510787 16.... 2297.486493.... 9244.212945 17.... 2527.235142.... 11093.05553 18.... 2779.958657.... 13311.66664 19.... 3057.954522.... 15973.99997 20.... 3363.749975.... 19168.79996 21.... 3700.124972.... 23002.55995 22.... 4070.137469.... 27603.07195 23.... 4477.151216.... 33123.68633 24.... 4924.866338.... 39748.4236 25.... 5417.352972.... 47698.10832 26.... 5959.088269.... 57237.72999 27.... 6554.997096.... 68685.27598 28.... 7210.496805.... 82422.33118 29.... 7931.546486.... 98906.79742 30.... 8724.701134.... 118688.1569 31.... 9597.171248.... 142425.7883 32.... 10556.88837.... 170910.9459 33.... 11612.57721.... 205093.1351 34.... 12773.83493.... 246111.7621 35.... 14051.21842.... 295334.1146 36.... 15456.34027.... 354400.9375 37.... 17001.97429.... 425281.125 38.... 18702.17172.... 510337.35 39.... 20572.38889.... 612404.82 40.... 22629.62778.... 734885.784 41.... 24892.59056.... 881862.9408 42.... 27381.84962.... 1058235.529 43.... 30120.03458.... 1269882.635 44.... 33132.03804.... 1523859.162 45.... 36445.24184.... 1828630.994 46.... 40089.76603.... 2194357.193 47.... 44098.74263.... 2633228.631 48.... 48508.61689.... 3159874.358 49.... 53359.47858.... 3791849.229 50.... 58695.42644.... 4550219.075 51.... 64564.96908.... 5460262.89 52.... 71021.46599.... 6552315.468
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___________________________________________ [SIZE=2"No more riddles."[/size] ___________________________________________ get the cd. it's how money gets made. Last edited by orange : 12-27-2006 at 12:52 AM. |
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Can't wait to see it Orange. A couple of problems that I pointed out in that other thread (one of which you touched on here):
A) You need at least two tracks going unless you have a daytrading account because you have to wait for settled funds. B) It becomes much harder to lump that much money into one pick (especially in penny land) so you'll actually end up needing multiple smaller picks, which can make it more difficult. So, yes, I think it's possible, but there's a lot of strategy that goes beyond just making the right picks. Good luck bud! ![]() |
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___________________________________________ [SIZE=2"No more riddles."[/size] ___________________________________________ get the cd. it's how money gets made. |
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__________________
___________________________________________ [SIZE=2"No more riddles."[/size] ___________________________________________ get the cd. it's how money gets made. |
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BUT one last question: Are you going to cash out at exactly between 10-20% or are you going to let it run higher if you know it's going to? Also, don't forget about commissions ![]() |
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my commish is only $5 (actually less) each way. hey- you're not "cramping my thread"-- come on in! i like what you're doing, nice strategy. i'm not just doing this for OTHER ppl- i'm doing it for ME. gives me discipline to stick with it- i know what you mean abt getting "antsy"- that's been my problem and why i haven't done it yet.
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___________________________________________ [SIZE=2"No more riddles."[/size] ___________________________________________ get the cd. it's how money gets made. |
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we're abt to begin. scm even started a blog somewhere abt this. and i re-named this thread the same name (hope ya don't mind, scm
). i want to quote you from your blog too- seems to sum it up for me:"this is not a competition between the two of us — we are both pulling for one another and will on occasion seek advice from one another. The whole point of this experiment is to show other investors that you don’t need large returns on large investments, but rather that money can be made with small returns on small investments — as one of our good friends always says, “There’s no such thing as a bad profit.” we start this coming week. so for members who are new to trading i want to use some hard numbers to point out a couple things abt "There’s no such thing as a bad profit" (catfish quote). we're planning to do this for 52 weeks. so would your strategy be to maximize gain per each trade, or to settle for less and maximize the number of trades? you may want to comment or disagree but here's what i see... there's a 3-day settlement rule, so you have 1.66 max trades per week. in pennies, if you hold out for, more than 10% on each trade, your likelihood of getting stuck or delayed or of hitting your (mental) stop loss are all increased in direct proportion to how much above 10% you target. let's say you target 25%-- your likely average gain will be closer to 15%, if that. your three-day settlement cycle will also be disrupted and you'll only make abt 1 trade per week (52 per year). but, if you FIRMLY target only 10%, assuming you have good t/a skills, you'll usually get it, along with 1.66 trades per week (86.32 per year). i messed up in the chart below and show only 85 trades but you get the idea... so do you disagree with the FIRM 10% gain strategy? i also ran a 1 trade per week 20% gain and it does outperform this. i'll probably float somewhere between 10-20%. ]gain[/url]
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___________________________________________ [SIZE=2"No more riddles."[/size] ___________________________________________ get the cd. it's how money gets made. |
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I totally agree with this plan, Orange. I have been using this "small gains" strategy for quite a while. I would not sell out after 10% on every trade, though. One way to factor in losing trades is to set aside money from trades that make, let's say, 30%. If you know what amount you are supposed to be at to stay on track and you lose on a trade, you then draw from that pool to put you back on pace. A working example of this is TDCP from this last week. If I put $1000 in to it on Thursday at .37, the charts gave me absolutely no indication that I should sell at .41 and take my 10%. I knew it was an easy 25-30% gainer. To play it cautiously and still very profitably, I sell at these levels and take my $250-$300 profit. To stay on the plan, I roll $100 into the next play and set the extra aside in anticipation of a losing play somewhere along the way. In theory, the plan is very feasible. In reality, especially when you reach the higher levels with a lot of money involved, it becomes very difficult to pick winner after winner. I highly, highly recommend to anyone that once some larger amounts of cash are made (let's say your $500 has turned into $10,000) that you concede to the idea that it may take extra weeks to become a millionaire, but you pull several thousand out yourself and take the profits and work with what's left. It is a good safety net and brings in our mottos around here of "there's no such thing as a bad profit" and not to get greedy.
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Money can't buy happiness, but I can buy a yacht and sail right up next to it. 2 Words: Technical Analysis. Check out the watchlist and get the cd. click here to join the team |
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There is the old saying to a successful business that goes "Mind the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves". This is very true to successful trading also.
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Money can't buy happiness, but I can buy a yacht and sail right up next to it. 2 Words: Technical Analysis. Check out the watchlist and get the cd. click here to join the team |
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Orange
Gotta some questions for you. First off, what sight do you use that has $5 trades. I'm at scottrade right now. Secondly, what percentage will each of your gains be taxed at (35% or more?). I like your thinking, but I was curious as to how that would all work.
Thanks, Popcan |
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Nice idea Arange(i'm in NC right now...hehehhe)
I like it and i am in. I won't be able to start for a little bit though. I think i will start with $1k. This may even be more fun than paper trading where you get to play with 100k. Are we confined to a certain stock pps?.....i imagine most of us will stay with stocks below $10 perhaps even $1.
Gonna be fun. GLTA you losers!! ![]()
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In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins: cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later. - Harold S. Geneen |