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  #1 (permalink)   Spam Kill
Old 12-27-2006, 12:26 AM
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The $500 Experiment

i've been wanting to do this for awhile but kept getting distracted. so i'm gonna hang with it and post it here in public view as long as i can, starting either this week or next.
post what? i'm convinced that if you do like the cats and others have said and just take some profit when you can then you can roll just $500 into more than $1,000,000 in less than a year.
these will be actual trades and we'll see how i do. sometimes i'll give advance warning- but mostly i probably won't post until i'm out or on my way out. that way it's not like pumping my own plays which would invalidate the model, right?

the model is i'm setting aside just $500 to start. i'll be using quant (from me) and/or technical analysis (a lot from greencat's cd) to make these plays. sometimes i'll explain fully why i made each play and sometimes not because many of greencat's methods and mine are proprietary and just shouldn't be laid out for public view. the whole point is to show how do-able this $500 thing is...

okay- the next post will show my basic financial strategy.
btw, ANYBODY can belly up to the bar here and post a similar thing with $500 or $1000 to start and track their results for us to see. in fact, it's a good idea, as you'll see why in next post... in a few minutes...
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Old 12-27-2006, 12:46 AM
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Part 2

my plan is to compound this $500 at minimum 10% per week. so you can see that at that rate my max is just $71,021 . so obviously we need someone to roll for 20% per week with $1000 and they'd crack $1mil in wk #38, etc... the thing is, i don't have a daytrading acct, which would make it a lot easier to do- instead of compounding by weeks, i'd compound per play... you can see how that would work... note that it takes 81 weeks (not shown) with $500 @ 10% compounded per week to hit $1,024,200.11 , so with a daytrading acct and 8 10% trades per week i'd hit the mark in week 11...


wk. ...10%.... 20%
0.... 500.... 500
1.... 550.... 600
2.... 605.... 720
3.... 665.5.... 864
4.... 732.05.... 1036.8
5.... 805.255.... 1244.16
6.... 885.7805.... 1492.992
7.... 974.35855.... 1791.5904
8.... 1071.794405.... 2149.90848
9.... 1178.973846.... 2579.890176
10.... 1296.87123.... 3095.868211
11.... 1426.558353.... 3715.041853
12.... 1569.214188.... 4458.050224
13.... 1726.135607.... 5349.660269
14.... 1898.749168.... 6419.592323
15.... 2088.624085.... 7703.510787
16.... 2297.486493.... 9244.212945
17.... 2527.235142.... 11093.05553
18.... 2779.958657.... 13311.66664
19.... 3057.954522.... 15973.99997
20.... 3363.749975.... 19168.79996
21.... 3700.124972.... 23002.55995
22.... 4070.137469.... 27603.07195
23.... 4477.151216.... 33123.68633
24.... 4924.866338.... 39748.4236
25.... 5417.352972.... 47698.10832
26.... 5959.088269.... 57237.72999
27.... 6554.997096.... 68685.27598
28.... 7210.496805.... 82422.33118
29.... 7931.546486.... 98906.79742
30.... 8724.701134.... 118688.1569
31.... 9597.171248.... 142425.7883
32.... 10556.88837.... 170910.9459
33.... 11612.57721.... 205093.1351
34.... 12773.83493.... 246111.7621
35.... 14051.21842.... 295334.1146
36.... 15456.34027.... 354400.9375
37.... 17001.97429.... 425281.125
38.... 18702.17172.... 510337.35
39.... 20572.38889.... 612404.82
40.... 22629.62778.... 734885.784
41.... 24892.59056.... 881862.9408
42.... 27381.84962.... 1058235.529
43.... 30120.03458.... 1269882.635
44.... 33132.03804.... 1523859.162
45.... 36445.24184.... 1828630.994
46.... 40089.76603.... 2194357.193
47.... 44098.74263.... 2633228.631
48.... 48508.61689.... 3159874.358
49.... 53359.47858.... 3791849.229
50.... 58695.42644.... 4550219.075
51.... 64564.96908.... 5460262.89
52.... 71021.46599.... 6552315.468
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Last edited by orange : 12-27-2006 at 12:52 AM.
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  #3 (permalink)   Spam Kill
Old 12-27-2006, 12:51 AM
scmfinance scmfinance is offline
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Can't wait to see it Orange. A couple of problems that I pointed out in that other thread (one of which you touched on here):

A) You need at least two tracks going unless you have a daytrading account because you have to wait for settled funds.

B) It becomes much harder to lump that much money into one pick (especially in penny land) so you'll actually end up needing multiple smaller picks, which can make it more difficult.

So, yes, I think it's possible, but there's a lot of strategy that goes beyond just making the right picks. Good luck bud!
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Old 12-27-2006, 01:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scmfinance
Can't wait to see it Orange. A couple of problems that I pointed out in that other thread (one of which you touched on here):

A) You need at least two tracks going unless you have a daytrading account because you have to wait for settled funds.

B) It becomes much harder to lump that much money into one pick (especially in penny land) so you'll actually end up needing multiple smaller picks, which can make it more difficult.

So, yes, I think it's possible, but there's a lot of strategy that goes beyond just making the right picks. Good luck bud!
thanks, scm. i was just coming to that part so you saved me the trouble. beyond abt $3,000 have to move on up in otcbb; at abt $6,000 move to nazz. at abt $50,000 have to start splitting plays- probably should even earlier to spread risk. daytrading will certainly smooth the way. hey- put up $500 and let's see how far each of us can get
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Old 12-27-2006, 01:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scmfinance
Can't wait to see it Orange. A couple of problems that I pointed out in that other thread (one of which you touched on here):

A) You need at least two tracks going unless you have a daytrading account because you have to wait for settled funds.

B) It becomes much harder to lump that much money into one pick (especially in penny land) so you'll actually end up needing multiple smaller picks, which can make it more difficult.

So, yes, I think it's possible, but there's a lot of strategy that goes beyond just making the right picks. Good luck bud!
Actually, I see what you're saying about compounding per week rather than per play, so I guess a day trading account wouldn't be necessary, as you would only need to make one good play/week that yields between 10%-20%. My only problem would be that I'd get too antsy LOL.
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Old 12-27-2006, 01:15 AM
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]moneyhunny[/url]
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Old 12-27-2006, 01:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orange
thanks, scm. i was just coming to that part so you saved me the trouble. beyond abt $3,000 have to move on up in otcbb; at abt $6,000 move to nazz. at abt $50,000 have to start splitting plays- probably should even earlier to spread risk. daytrading will certainly smooth the way. hey- put up $500 and let's see how far each of us can get
Ironically, if you read here I already started without even knowing it -- I was just trying to make my losses from FGFC back. I didn't even think about letting it go for 52 weeks although I might now. So I'm a couple weeks ahead of you and actually started with exactly $1k. I don't want to cramp on your thread with all of my nonsense so I'll shut up now and let you work your magic LOL.

BUT one last question: Are you going to cash out at exactly between 10-20% or are you going to let it run higher if you know it's going to?

Also, don't forget about commissions
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Old 12-27-2006, 01:32 AM
Newbie415 Newbie415 is offline
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comissions are going to slow you down a lot in the beginning with those 10% profits on a $500 trade
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  #9 (permalink)   Spam Kill
Old 12-27-2006, 01:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scmfinance
Ironically, if you read here I already started without even knowing it -- I was just trying to make my losses from FGFC back. I didn't even think about letting it go for 52 weeks although I might now. So I'm a couple weeks ahead of you and actually started with exactly $1k. I don't want to cramp on your thread with all of my nonsense so I'll shut up now and let you work your magic LOL.

BUT one last question: Are you going to cash out at exactly between 10-20% or are you going to let it run higher if you know it's going to?

Also, don't forget about commissions
LOL- i'll take what i can get but i'll try not to get too greedy.
my commish is only $5 (actually less) each way.
hey- you're not "cramping my thread"-- come on in! i like what you're doing, nice strategy. i'm not just doing this for OTHER ppl- i'm doing it for ME. gives me discipline to stick with it- i know what you mean abt getting "antsy"- that's been my problem and why i haven't done it yet.
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  #10 (permalink)   Spam Kill
Old 12-30-2006, 04:06 AM
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we're abt to begin. scm even started a blog somewhere abt this. and i re-named this thread the same name (hope ya don't mind, scm ). i want to quote you from your blog too- seems to sum it up for me:
"this is not a competition between the two of us — we are both pulling for one another and will on occasion seek advice from one another. The whole point of this experiment is to show other investors that you don’t need large returns on large investments, but rather that money can be made with small returns on small investments — as one of our good friends always says, “There’s no such thing as a bad profit.

we start this coming week. so for members who are new to trading i want to use some hard numbers to point out a couple things abt "There’s no such thing as a bad profit" (catfish quote). we're planning to do this for 52 weeks. so would your strategy be to maximize gain per each trade, or to settle for less and maximize the number of trades? you may want to comment or disagree but here's what i see...

there's a 3-day settlement rule, so you have 1.66 max trades per week. in pennies, if you hold out for, more than 10% on each trade, your likelihood of getting stuck or delayed or of hitting your (mental) stop loss are all increased in direct proportion to how much above 10% you target. let's say you target 25%-- your likely average gain will be closer to 15%, if that. your three-day settlement cycle will also be disrupted and you'll only make abt 1 trade per week (52 per year). but, if you FIRMLY target only 10%, assuming you have good t/a skills, you'll usually get it, along with 1.66 trades per week (86.32 per year). i messed up in the chart below and show only 85 trades but you get the idea...

so do you disagree with the FIRM 10% gain strategy? i also ran a 1 trade per week 20% gain and it does outperform this. i'll probably float somewhere between 10-20%.
]gain[/url]
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  #11 (permalink)   Spam Kill
Old 12-30-2006, 06:33 AM
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I totally agree with this plan, Orange. I have been using this "small gains" strategy for quite a while. I would not sell out after 10% on every trade, though. One way to factor in losing trades is to set aside money from trades that make, let's say, 30%. If you know what amount you are supposed to be at to stay on track and you lose on a trade, you then draw from that pool to put you back on pace. A working example of this is TDCP from this last week. If I put $1000 in to it on Thursday at .37, the charts gave me absolutely no indication that I should sell at .41 and take my 10%. I knew it was an easy 25-30% gainer. To play it cautiously and still very profitably, I sell at these levels and take my $250-$300 profit. To stay on the plan, I roll $100 into the next play and set the extra aside in anticipation of a losing play somewhere along the way. In theory, the plan is very feasible. In reality, especially when you reach the higher levels with a lot of money involved, it becomes very difficult to pick winner after winner. I highly, highly recommend to anyone that once some larger amounts of cash are made (let's say your $500 has turned into $10,000) that you concede to the idea that it may take extra weeks to become a millionaire, but you pull several thousand out yourself and take the profits and work with what's left. It is a good safety net and brings in our mottos around here of "there's no such thing as a bad profit" and not to get greedy.
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Old 12-30-2006, 07:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orange
we're abt to begin. scm even started a blog somewhere abt this. and i re-named this thread the same name (hope ya don't mind, scm ). i want to quote you from your blog too- seems to sum it up for me:
"this is not a competition between the two of us — we are both pulling for one another and will on occasion seek advice from one another. The whole point of this experiment is to show other investors that you don’t need large returns on large investments, but rather that money can be made with small returns on small investments — as one of our good friends always says, “There’s no such thing as a bad profit.

we start this coming week. so for members who are new to trading i want to use some hard numbers to point out a couple things abt "There’s no such thing as a bad profit" (catfish quote). we're planning to do this for 52 weeks. so would your strategy be to maximize gain per each trade, or to settle for less and maximize the number of trades? you may want to comment or disagree but here's what i see...

there's a 3-day settlement rule, so you have 1.66 max trades per week. in pennies, if you hold out for, more than 10% on each trade, your likelihood of getting stuck or delayed or of hitting your (mental) stop loss are all increased in direct proportion to how much above 10% you target. let's say you target 25%-- your likely average gain will be closer to 15%, if that. your three-day settlement cycle will also be disrupted and you'll only make abt 1 trade per week (52 per year). but, if you FIRMLY target only 10%, assuming you have good t/a skills, you'll usually get it, along with 1.66 trades per week (86.32 per year). i messed up in the chart below and show only 85 trades but you get the idea...

so do you disagree with the FIRM 10% gain strategy? i also ran a 1 trade per week 20% gain and it does outperform this. i'll probably float somewhere between 10-20%.
]gain[/url]

I think it is a great idea. I think more time is spent trying to make the big kill than to try and make a profit. To many times you hear about people saying I got greedy for more money. You have to learn to take your profit first. Even if it seems a small amount. Nickel and dimming the market to your advantage is a great thing.

I also think that if I can have 80 successful trades at 10% a year then my money being locked up for a few extra days certainly is not the end of the world.

The trick is being determined in your mind to do it and stick to it. It is a great idea.
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Old 12-30-2006, 07:45 AM
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There is the old saying to a successful business that goes "Mind the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves". This is very true to successful trading also.
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Old 12-30-2006, 07:46 AM
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Orange

Gotta some questions for you. First off, what sight do you use that has $5 trades. I'm at scottrade right now. Secondly, what percentage will each of your gains be taxed at (35% or more?). I like your thinking, but I was curious as to how that would all work.

Thanks,

Popcan
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Old 12-30-2006, 09:44 AM
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Nice idea Arange(i'm in NC right now...hehehhe)

I like it and i am in. I won't be able to start for a little bit though. I think i will start with $1k. This may even be more fun than paper trading where you get to play with 100k. Are we confined to a certain stock pps?.....i imagine most of us will stay with stocks below $10 perhaps even $1.

Gonna be fun. GLTA you losers!!
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