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Old 12-08-2006, 10:53 AM
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Arrow Trading on News

usually the best thing to do abt news is to just get out of the way because results are often irrational. There are also some very sophisticated ways to play/hedge the news, but this takes considerable skill and attention to detail.

another- simpler - way to trade the news is similar to averaging down in stocks. it's also abt money management. i've experimented with this briefly and it seems to work (paper trade it first tho). a main feature is you do not commit your designated available risk capital all at once. let's say you have designated $700 for this trade. an example trade unfolds like this....

1. indicators say the pair is trending north.
2. news breaks and the pair goes sharply south. wait for what you think is a bottom, based on indicators, and go long for 2 minis ($100).
3. if you were right, add 4 minis ($200) abt 1/3 of the way to resistance. at 2/3 of the way to resistance, add the other 8 minis ($400). you are now 100% committed. exit ALL at abt 85% of the way to resistance.
4. if you were wrong in #2, re-assess and add 4 minis at the new bottom (as you see it). if still wrong, add 8 more minis at the next new bottom (as you see it). ride ALL back up to abt 85% of the way to resistance and exit. if wrong in this step #4, exit on 10-20% loss of the 8-mini trade and wait for more solid support.

if this works for you, especially if using step #4, don't get greedy! you may get trapped waiting for a double-bottom pattern to play out. you may see the price run well past your exit (i saw it happen this morning) and be tempted next time to hang on- don't do it.
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