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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 13/05/08
Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD opens mixed, ends lower • Technical levels hold gains in check • Stops in range Overnight Preview • Look for two-way action to continue • Technical trade likely Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag • 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil • 08:30 Retail Sales forecast 0.0% • 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto forecast 0.5% • 10:00 Business Inventories 0.3% This data likely to be a non-event. Markets are really watching for the larger data due on Wednesday. Summary The USD is ending the day heavily mixed to start the week. Initially firmer in overnight Asia the Greenback gave back hard-won follow-on gains from European trade at previous S/R areas against most major pairs. Cable advanced on cross-spreading demand to post a high print in New York for the day at 1.9635 making the day an outside-range engulfing bar on the daily; a strong potential reversal signal from the two-month lows at 1.9441 earlier in the day. Although the trade was considered a strong signal the volumes were not impressive suggesting the rate will follow-through only modestly the next 24-36 hours. EURO rallied back to the potential sell-zone in the 1.5550 area for a high print at 1.5572 before dropping back a bit on the close. Traders note stops in range triggered on the rally over the 1.5450/60 area overnight; lows at 1.5365 went unchallenged in New York. Model account demand also seen suggesting that momentum traders are coming in on the buy side. Also active in USD/JPY, model forex traders likely had their stops too close to protect themselves against a reversal suggesting that the EURO and the Yen will whipsaw traders the next 24-36 hours. Look for a pullback in both pairs; EURO/JPY also active overnight suggesting the USD will remain under pressure against the Yen near-term. Highs in USD/JPY at 104.05 were offered rumored by semi-official names and the rate is off the highs to finish New York. For the most part, the Greenback had a solid two-way day against most of the majors and despite the two-way action is holding between established support and resistance. The GBP likely will follow-through to the upside a bit but sellers are expected to show at the 1.9680/1.9720 area. EURO has likely made the high for the week seeing as no real stops over the 1.5550 area were seen today and that is precisely where they would have been if shorts were active over the weekend; aggressive traders can look to ADD to open shorts in EURO at the 1.5550 area OB today and tomorrow. Looking ahead, expect technical trade to dominate ahead of Wednesday’s CPI data; Tuesday’s data likely no factor. EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5600/10 Resistance 2: 1.5570/80 Resistance 1: 1.5550 Latest New York: 1.5535 Support 1: 1.5500/1.5490 Support 2: 1.5450 Support 3: 1.5400 Comments Bounce is developing nicely, rally over the 1.5400 handle significant. Rate holds opening range on the fall-back; solid sign of no sellers left. Rally back from dip under the 1.5400 on stops suggests more losses are coming but a corrective bounce is needed (which is developing now) Support at 1.5280 is firm near-term. Look for rotation higher to end about now—the next 24-36 hours. Rate clears close in stops again. Strong long-liquidation break is still coming; Watch for two-way volatility. Short-covering rally stalled where expected in the 1.5550/1.5600 area again; look to re-short in that area now. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Tentative EuroGroup Finance Ministers Meeting USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 104.80 Resistance 2: 10450/60 Resistance 1: 104.10/20 Latest New York: 103.92 Support 1: 102.50/60 Support 2: 102.00 Support 3: 101.80 Comments Rally back from the Friday lows likely a Head-Fake; double –top has formed and a strong sell signal suggests a potential short is now confirmed at the 105.00/50 area again. Rate has broken trend line support. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; expect more volatility. Looking for the rate to briefly follow through higher for a short-covering rally through Tuesday but fall harder into mid week; likely in the 10460/80 area. Day traders may get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Stops could be in size at the 102.50/80 area. Resistance at 104.80 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 7:50pm CGPI y/y 3.6% 7:50pm Current Account 1.95T Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. |
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Ever thought of what Finland is like? And who are the Finns and what are they like? How do they live, how does the country go on about its everyday business, what are the people interested in? This is the place for some answers and facts to that kind of questions. Please select the appropriate headline on the left to get to know more about Finland facts.深圳打折机票The long, light days of summer pulsate with international festivals of performing arts, from opera and jazz to dance and tango, while the Finnish winter landscape is a natural playground for every conceivable winter sport and activity. Sparkling lakes and endless forests provide the perfect retreat and a ready-made therapy for the stresses and strains of modern life. Friendly people, natural beauty on an extraordinary scale, excellent services, superb accommodation, and unsurpassed facilities for congress and incentive travel: these are some of the rewards for the visitor to Finland. Follow the links through our site to find out more about what Finland has to offer. 上海打折机票上海国际机票上海东方航空深圳飞机票
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