This will be a thread where we can discuss the different indexes and talk about where we think things are headed.

I saw this chart by M. Flavin today on the Nas 100 index and found it quite interesting...

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Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Lets talk about trends...how to spot them, where to buy and sell in them, and how to decipher the strength of them...

Im still learning, so please feel free to agree/ disagree and add your two cents...Im just giving opinions, and by no means is what I say the last word...

It will help me to get comments from all of you as well...

The chart I am posting up is of the QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) ....but first, in t/a how can you tell if a trend has strength.....a good indicator for that is the ADX

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/adx.asp

I have been told by some that a nice strong trend is when the ADX is actually above 30...a tad contrary to what you'll read in investopedia but not much...

Also notice the 20ema during the period of a strong trend...


Lets look at this annotated chart I put together...(I owe a lot of what I am learning to Flavin)...lets notice when this most recent uptrend is at a period of real strength and lets see how we can figure out the best places to be adding to long positions (because we are looking at an uptrend)....then lets look at the times when we begin to see the trend weakening (a time when we should be changing over to cash and preparing for the trends reversal; possibly getting ready to get on the short side)...

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Where might this correction take us? Well, there are many factors (several outside of wall st) that will help determine this...but how about technically speaking...? Personally, I think we see 11000 and probably sightly under within the next 6-8 months...(a prediction that isn't probably very popular...lol)

Here is a 3 year weekly chart for Dow Industrials...

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

How about pharmaceuticals? Big blue chip players that pay divy's perhaps? Note to self..."look for big pharma co's at support"...

Pharmas Im watching...PFE, ABT, LLY, GSK

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

The Biotech sector looks like it may be a good one to short during the next rally....I repeat, wait for the rallies. This sector is full of speculative co's, many with high p/e's, and Im not so sure investors are going to be in the mood to leverage towards the highly speculative in this current market - think psyche.......sure to have a few good candidates imo...

Compare this correction with the one of last year around this time...

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Is it important to keep an eye on the different Indices and follow their trends to see which direction the market is headed? You bet. Look at these trends....you can see where the uptrend was both losing its steam and preparing to go into a "correction mode" and head in the other direction at some point. It showed several signs that it was happening. All it needed was a "catalyst" to set the wheels in motion......combine the yen's strength to the dollar and the carry trade situation along with the "sub-prime" concerns, and then........... Shanghai...... and wait, "a computer glitch"??... ...sure....ooookay...lol

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/...carrytrade.asp

To put some new info to use.....could we be seeing the beginning of a nice 1-2-3 pattern that could result in a return to longer term bullishness???...lol....well if everything were to go great, yes...lol, but hell, this is the market....who can predict, eh?

Point #1 would already be at the 200....point #2 could be at that point of resistance I drew...point #3 would have to be just somewhere between point #2 and the 200dma...then a move back up breaking that line of resistance would be sweet! I'd be playing the OEX...and I may be on Monday anyway....

GL

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p38243327563&a=100561145

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Played OEX puts today.....I almost bought in the QID but didn't...

...will we break through the 200 tomorrow...??? I sure think so, if not tomorrow, soon.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=oex...d=p26640538091

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

I like Genentech, which is bordering on being over-sold and testing its support level, which appears to be around $79 to $80. If I was going to play it, at this point I'd play it long.

Indices have broken all sorts of key supports....combine that with optons expiration week and the jitters and.... Bombs away.

Friday late could be a good buying opp for good, solid co's....the harder the fall, the harder the bounce...but imo, it will be short term - the market won't be able to quickly recover from this volitility...

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

BOOYAH!!!! What a fight! Temporarily green ....lol.....volitilty....WOW!

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Important day tomorrow....if the bull run of the past 6 mo's is to continue ( even in a lesser degree) then the bulls better come out and play tomorrow...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04185719586&a=100018799&listNum=12

I'll also be watching the VIX...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=vix...d=p04185719586

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Is it possible to buy and sell indices like a stock or is that all done with futures?

Eyeballing some OEX puts....

Yes Guthrie....I have been playing some indices w/ options...

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Paying close attention here as an approach to 645 comes into play...break it to the upside w/ a surge in volume...could be a long entering oppty....

..wondering about straddling this resistance, because I think it will move nicely one way or the other from this pivot point...??? hmm...

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Well, well, well......what might we expect for tomorrow...todays gains were nice but on below avg volume, so not overly exciting, but definitely a step in the right direction...

It was also the firsts day after "freaky friday" which I haven't paid a lot of attention to in the past but from what Ive heard is usually a positive day...???

Tomorrow is important, shoot everyday has some sort of importance eh? The fed (FONC) is meeting this week and should have a IR (Interest Rate) decision
by Wed, (I believe). Word on the street is that it will remain unchanged with the latest CPI numbers (inflation) not in the fed's "comfort zone".....now is not the time for a hike either with signs of a slowing economy (to some degree). I imagine folks will be primarily listening to Bernake's statements for hints or subtleties of possible rate cuts later this year....and probably whether or not he mentions the lightening words (these days)..."sub prime"....and whether that problem may spill into other parts of the economy. Option traders seem to be leaning more towards placing their bets on rate cuts later this year and up to 3x.

"Options on federal funds futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a reduction this year."


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...d=arB4KZwzySic


For tomorrow....it is a good sign that the yen is declining to the dollar...

...call it.....the "carry trade effect" - and Asian Mkts doing well so far

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...83D18478721%7D


A few charts

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p35260048438&a=101221132


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p35756799524&a=101221162&listNum=12

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$indu&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p35756799524

GL

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.