Gettin awful close to key resistance points on many major indices.....FED comments should be interesting...

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Crazy action moments after...

"FOMC keeps rates at 5.25%, drops reference to possible hike


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% and dropped a reference to the possibility of future tightening. The Fed repeated that "some inflation risks remain," but took out the reference to "the extent and timing of any additional firming." Instead, the FOMC said "future policy adjustments" will depend on the outlook for inflation and growth. In the statement, the Fed said that recent indicators have been mixed and said the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. The Fed said that core inflation reading "have been somewhat elevated" but said that inflation pressures are likely to moderate. The Fed has chosen to hold interest rates steady since last June. The decision was expected by traders and economists on Wall Street. End of Story"




I bet "long" just before comments.....looks good so far
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__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Indices were mixed today consolidating yesterdays gains...

Energy and Telecom lead the way...Steel, Semis lagged

I would imagine that tomorrow we will see some profittaking in the morning with the home sales report that will probably wind up being a bit weaker than expected...may see some afternoon buyers come in to pull us back but I guess sellers (profitakers) will win in the end of the day considering Fri and end of a nice little rally for the week...

S&P Gallery

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx

Market Gauge as of EOD today

http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvmgpro/G...daysGauges.asp

Overall Daily Review

http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/Mar...&t1=1110241043

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/F...&cmd=show,iday[Y]&disp=SXA

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Housing numbers surprisingly positive...

"A Sign that Housing Fears are Overblown"

February existing home sales unexpectedly jumped 3.9% to a 6.69 million annual rate. A decline was expected after a similar January increase. This is a very strong number and keeps home sales well above the recent bottom. October sales were at a 6.27 million annual rate, November 6.25, December 6.27, January 6.44, and now February checks in at 6.96.

The median price of homes sold was down 2.3% from a year ago. This is not particularly distressing, as it is less than the 3.1% drop last month. Even with stable home sales, the median price is likely to remain flat to negative for quite a while.

The sales jump isn't going to completely end fears that the housing market will ultimately lead to a recession, but it will end a lot of the current talk. It could be a mixed blessing for the stock market in that a stable housing market greatly reduces the rationale for any Fed easing. Nevertheless, it is a very healthy sign for the economy in that it appears that even though new home sales and construction are weak, there clearly is continuing demand in the housing market.

There are, of course, fears that problems in the subprime mortgage market will lead to fewer home sales in the months ahead but there is as of yet no evidence of that. New home sales data, which run near a 1.0 million annual rate, will be out on Monday. The new home market has been subject to more difficulty than the market for sales of existing homes.

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Couple charts for this upcoming week...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p99568494616&a=101816369&listNum=11

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26640538091&a=101816623&listNum=11

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Its just tough to predict anything at this point....I am primarily long still but did hedge Q's, SPX, & IWM for some protection...

I haven't heard it mentioned much here, but The Great Wall of Short Street does not want to see this mrket make any new highs it seems...

Its really quite amazing how the sentiment of the bears (which oddly enough matches a few traders here) has been so high over the past qtrs...

AAII 50 wk moving avg for percentage of bears sentiment at 37.6% - That is a level only seen during two periods since tracking began in the early 80's. (Oct90-Jul91, Mar-May03)...we are actually about to pass the peak in bearish sentiment during the 2000-03 mkt meltdown...CRAZY considering the fact that the S&P is up roughly 16% in the past nine mos...

http://www.aaii.com/ (Need a pd membership for this)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p70956979582

...and 90+% since the bear mkt lows of 02

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52130429475

...plus the cumulative a/d recently hit a new record high and we had one of the best aug/sep/oct runs in history...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79743750469&a=10 2145701&listNum=11

Is the S & P overvalued?....P/E 17.23 Forward P/E being 15.5 - doesn't seem so to me.

Permabears seem to be out in full force these days...QID receiving record volumes and with the explosion of hedge funds (some...many?) w/ trading strategies that directly benefit from sluggish or declining stock market equities, I sense it will be very difficult for the market to overcome this and break out w/ new highs. That is of course with the sub and inflation concerns aside...of which the messages seem to remain mixed.

Nevertheless, I get the feeling that many investors believe that a meaningful "correction" has not yet been accomplished....and there are still other indicators of current high levels of investor anxiety - ISE Sentiment Index http://www.iseoptions.com/marketplac...ee_history.asp

btw - interesting on that chart to see that when sentiment dropped to the levels of current (like back in Aug 0f 06) the market began to go on a tear...

So, are the bears and short sellers that claim every pullback as a top while subsequently claiming every new high as just another shorting opp getting a tad bit complacent... or are they just plain bold... or are they just plain ........???

NYSE Short Interest surged last month 10% to new all time highs.

http://www.nysedata.com/nysedata/Inf...7/Default.aspx

Last night the Nasdaq also reported that short interest jumped to an all time record. From mid February through mid March, short interest on the Nasdaq rose 12.1% to 7,890,000,000 shares. This was the largest monthly percentage increase since Bloomberg began tracking short interest in 1991.

With the many investors sitting cash right now essentially on the sidelines...and with the huge short positions in the exchanges........will we continue to go down for much longer..??? Or would there be one helluva short cover if there was a catalyst to push us on up....there is certainly plenty of firepower waiting and watching....so COME ON inflation....Settle Your Azz Down, because Mr. B has just the catalyst to spark that fire if you do...a rate cut, and we're off to the races!!!

Unfortunately, I just don't see that happening for the next couple qtr's....of course this is just imho.

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

Mkt set to open higher on hope that Iran/ Britian hostage sit may be able to be resolved....

Oil down, futures modestly pointing upward...

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

I am pretty much mkt neutral but sitting w/ long positions on select securities...

I am closely watching the SPY and the 140 pivot and 144 resistance

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY...747&listNum=13

new mkt highs will swing me bullish and a break below 140 will be bearish

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

FWIW, experimenting with some things...
method says strong move due to begin on DOW this week, which has not yet occurred. not real confident of direction, but suggests downward, with thursday and/or friday closing values lower than today's 12530.05

EDIT: oh, you're looking at the SPY... wondered what that 144 business was abt LOL... okay, i'll run that thru the little black box too and see what comes out

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[SIZE=2"No more riddles."[/size]
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get the cd. it's how money gets made.

yup, same thing for the SPY- and that one more strongly signals a lengthy decline. again, this stuff is just FWIW- purely experimental

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___________________________________________
[SIZE=2"No more riddles."[/size]
___________________________________________
get the cd. it's how money gets made.

I have been keeping my investments very spread out, I do have some technology stocks that I like very much for the next two years. I like Microsoft they are becoming more competitive with the new microsoft all in one to compete with Norton antivirus, they have come out with a better program than google earth, and of course vista.

The point that comes with vista is that you will be needing a new computer if you want to upgrade to Vista, you may as well be buying a new computer.
With a new computer comes the computer companies, dell, HP, Gateway, Acer you decide. I am putting my money into gateway, the stock is at 2.24 a share and they are putting a new call center in the US with Midwest English speaking people. You will need more memory to run your computer, a bigger hard drive, and more video memory.

You will therefore have to breakdown whats inside a computer, add the operating system, and figure out the software to run what you need.

i forgot abt the friday holiday, so now friday=monday. watching with great interest to see which way these break, but i'm still voting for down to confirm my sense of directionality on this new thing. SPY and $INDU both ticked slightly up thursday; i call this "loading" or "arming"-- it should amplify the drop. but if i got the direction wrong, then they will move up strongly, esp SPY. this quant is almost never wrong abt strength of a move. but i still say down starting monday, esp SPY.

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___________________________________________
[SIZE=2"No more riddles."[/size]
___________________________________________
get the cd. it's how money gets made.

I am following this orange to see your results....but I have been thinking a positive day after the jobs numbers on Friday...

Here is an exerpt from a h fund mgr at eod friday that I really enjoy...interesting...

"The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is gaining and volume is about average. The AAII investor sentiment survey just came out today at 32.26% Bulls and 39.78% Bears. I would like to emphasize the point that I truly believe overall investor sentiment has never been this poor in US history with the DJIA just off record highs. This is a gigantic positive. Current readings(not one or two weeks, but longer-term) are at levels associated with major market bottoms and this is with the DJIA only 1.6% off its all-time high. Of course bears will say sentiment gauges are “different this time” and are poor mechanisms to help time the longer-term trend of the market because current sentiment readings are so disturbing to the secular bear case. Let’s not forget the market is up almost 100% from its lows and the “bears that cried wolf” are more widely followed than ever. Moreover, during the recent mild pullback numerous market “fearleaders” insinuated that anyone that is bullish is a “cheerleader.” I heard this term dozens of times right around the recent lows. I would expect to hear this type of talk by bears at a market bottom, not a top. Around the time of the major market bottom in 2002, technicians didn’t like the market, quants didn’t like it and the fundamentals looked terrible. It was the extreme readings in investor pessimism that screamed “major market bottom.” The current explosion in low correlation and negative correlation US stock strategies is just a function of the current US “negativity bubble,” in my opinion. I know there will always be a place for these strategies in some investors’ portfolios, but their current extreme popularity is a result of the belief by the herd that the US is still in a secular bear or long-term trading range, in my opinion. I suspect the demand for these types of strategies is peaking right now and will fall markedly over the longer-term as the US secular bull continues."

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

A bit disappointing that the market could not sustain anything today after the positive jobs news on Friday and drop in oil prices...I suspect the mood was tempered and Bulls were cautious because the positive jobs report will dampen anyones hopes of the need for some sort of rate cut in the near future (I didnt think we were going to be getting one anyways)...

In the end though, positive jobs report is good for the economy even though it is more of a lagging rather than leading indicator...

I believe the markets will move tepidly higher until a catalyst, which I believe will be the CPI report this week...

If it does not appear to show a moderating or even slowing of inflationary concerns then those that are hoping for a rate cut will have their hopes even dampened more and will be a positive for the bears....if it does show inflation beginning to come under control then I believe that will be helpful for the bulls enthusiasm...

Either way....I am still market neutral...about 80% long (what is not sitting cash)...and will try and trade appropriately.

Good Luck.

__________________
Skiing is your brain....Snowboarding is your brain on drugs.

Just because I'm a mod doesn't mean I'm a stock geni........yet.

well, Grizz, today was the turning point in my model and it just dithered on both indices. troubling to me because it did not begin the downslide i would almost have bet on. but they did begin the arming i mentioned, with more tiny upticks. so i'm still expecting what i said- only even harder now. had they moved up substantially, we could have seen a decent runup for a few days. this hesitation is ominous, i think. LOL, like the line you posted... "technicians didn’t like the market, quants didn’t like it and the fundamentals looked terrible." but i really don't "care" which way it goes- i'm just looking at a graphic overlay and calling it like i see it. maybe tonight i'll take another look and call support level(s)

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[SIZE=2"No more riddles."[/size]
___________________________________________
get the cd. it's how money gets made.

grizz, you are really getting hold to this stuff- hope i can learn from you.
just wanted to point out the obvious before i go on: i just noticed that any fool could forecast a dip or upturn in the $INDU, since it moves in periods of no more than abt 6 days. but that's not what i'm doing. that said, i just looked again...
$INDU i had originally (earlier post) done this with a weekly grid. tonight i did a daily. i can see 1 or at most 2 more days of dithering, constrained by monday's HOD of 12594. if it breaks that it's going to run up only to 12640, which i still doubt. once southbound, supports are 12445, 12340, and 12235. monday was a powerful grid intersect. i once ignored something like this on a forex chart and i paid dearly, not believing what it was saying. okay, back a bit later with the SPY.

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___________________________________________
[SIZE=2"No more riddles."[/size]
___________________________________________
get the cd. it's how money gets made.